Institutional research on space credit markets.
Credit events, financing structures and risk frameworks for lenders, insurers and investors in space infrastructure.
Space Credit Monitor
Quarterly financing and credit-market update: disclosed debt, new issuance, refinancing, ECA activity and major credit events across the sector.
Deployment Delay and DSCR
A credit transmission case: how a slipped deployment schedule moves through revenue recognition, debt service coverage and covenant headroom.
Sovereign Dependency Is the Hidden Credit Risk in Space Finance
The space economy is routinely described as a commercial growth story. The revenue base underpinning much of that activity is not as commercial as the headline figures suggest.
ECA Financing and Refinancing in Space Infrastructure
How export credit agency support, tenor and refinancing structures shape the cost and availability of debt for satellite operators.
Building the market history.
The SarynSpace Space Credit Monitor tracks disclosed debt, new issuance, refinancing, ECA activity and major credit events across the sector.
Space Credit Markets
Debt issuance, ECA finance, refinancing, leverage, covenant structures, distressed situations and credit spreads.
The Space Sector Is Financeable. Lenders Cannot Prove It Yet.
Private investment peaked at $18 billion in 2021, fell to $5.9 billion in 2024, and rebounded to $12.4 billion in 2025. The problem is analytical, not structural.
What Space Insurance Losses Tell Us About the Cost of Capital
In 2023, space insurers collected $557 million in premiums and paid out $995 million in claims. Those numbers contain a credit signal that the lending market has not yet read.
Credit Case Studies
Deployment delay, launch failure, constellation replenishment, refinancing stress, regulatory delay and satellite impairment.
Launch Failure and Replacement Capex
How an in-flight loss moves through insurance recovery, replacement capital and the operator funding plan.
Refinancing Stress in Constellation Replenishment
What happens to credit quality when replenishment capex and a refinancing window arrive together.
Regulatory Delay and Satellite Impairment
How licensing and spectrum delay translate into impairment, revenue deferral and covenant pressure.
Institutional Risk Frameworks
Technical diligence into credit memos, recovery and LGD, portfolio monitoring, sparse-data model governance and infrastructure credit frameworks.
Berlin Space Protocol: Why Zero Ratifications After 14 Years Matters to Lenders
The absence of an effective international asset-security framework complicates recovery analysis and collateral treatment for orbital infrastructure.
A Proposed Credit Framework for Space Infrastructure
Integrating structural, financial and financing risk into institutional underwriting, monitoring and expected-loss analysis.
Translating Technical Diligence into Credit Analysis
A framework for carrying engineering events into cash flow, covenants and refinancing risk.
Sparse-Data Credit Risk in Emerging Infrastructure
How institutions should think about uncertainty where default history is limited.
Model Governance for Emerging Infrastructure Credit
How specialised risk models should be validated and challenged.
Market Infrastructure
The structures, vehicles and reporting standards the space credit market needs before it can scale.
SPV Structures in Space Finance
How SPV structures can improve risk isolation, contractual clarity and financing transparency in space infrastructure.
Covenant Design for Satellite-Secured Lending
Translating structural and credit-risk signals into monitoring thresholds, covenant design and lender reporting.
Measuring Risk Migration in Space Infrastructure
How asset and operator risk change through time, and what that means for monitoring and portfolio review.
Concentration Risk in Orbital Portfolios
Why diversification across operators fails under debris stress, and how correlated exposure surfaces hidden portfolio concentration.
Archive · Valuation Research
Earlier equity-valuation work and market commentary, retained for the record.
The Filing Is Out: Marking Our SpaceX Model to the S-1
SpaceX filed its S-1 on 20 May 2026. We marked our pre-filing model to the audited segment data. The revised base equity value is $295 billion, an 85% discount to the reported $2 trillion target.
Debris, Debt, and the Deal: The Hidden Risks in the SpaceX IPO
A sum-of-parts analysis values SpaceX at $361.5 billion base case, an 82% discount to the reported $1.75–2.0 trillion IPO target. Three risk categories explain the gap.
The Musk Premium: SpaceX Pre-IPO Valuation Across Three Frameworks
DCF, comparable transactions, and sum-of-the-parts applied to SpaceX's reported FY2025 financials. The key driver is not Starlink revenue.