Credit Analytics · Orbital Assets

Space lending has no credit framework. We built one.

SarynSpace scores every active satellite on the three signals that determine whether it produces revenue: orbital position, regulatory status, and operator solvency. Used by lenders, insurers, and export credit agencies.

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SFIS® · Live Platform Metrics
Assets under coverage12,137
Operators monitored82
Backtest Recall1.00
Backtest F10.92
Mean PD (1-year)0.99%
Risk dist. · Critical3 assets
Financial data confidence92.7%
Recent updates
GPS BIIR-6 (PRN 20)Stable
STARLINK-1018PD ↑ 0.50%
MOMENTUS-X1PD 34.75%
5-layer
Bayesian PD inference stack
1 / 3 / 5 yr
Probability-of-default horizons
12,137
Assets under continuous coverage
1.00 recall
SR 26-2 backtest · F1 0.92 · zero missed defaults
TUM Venture Labs Aerospace and DefenseStartup-Verband (German Startup Association)Google for StartupsMongoDB for Startups
Platform Architecture

Two integrated engines. One institutional output.

All outputs are audit-ready and mapped to IFRS 9 Stage classification and Basel III/IV risk weight frameworks.

01·Saryn OR Engine

Multidimensional Risk Quantification

Seven-component scoring across orbital mechanics, propulsion margins, power system degradation, communications architecture, operator capacity, regulatory posture, and sovereign dependency exposure.

Non-Financial Covariates
02·Saryn CR Engine

Bayesian PD Estimation

A Bayesian probability-of-default engine: calibrated priors for sparse-history assets, operator-class pooling, model ensembling, and sequential updating as new telemetry arrives.

Sparse Default Correction
03·Portfolio Layer

Portfolio-Level Analytics

Operator-level aggregation, concentration risk flagging, correlated failure scenario analysis across constellation structures, and SPV-level tranche PD attribution for structured finance transactions.

Structured Finance Ready
Read the full methodology
Sample Output·Illustrative
ICEYE-X58
ICEYE  ·  SSO
Saryn OR Score1.31
PD (1-year)0.79%
PD (3-year)2.34%
PD (5-year)3.86%
Data confidence87.4%
Operational · LowCredit · funded
VIASAT 1
Viasat  ·  GEO
Saryn OR Score2.11
PD (1-year)2.50%
PD (3-year)7.50%
PD (5-year)12.50%
Data confidence90.8%
Operational · ModerateCredit · Sub-investment grade
Institutional Buyer Segments
[L]

Project Finance & Infrastructure Debt

Risk-weight calibration, IFRS 9 Stage allocation, and covenant trigger design for satellite-backed debt facilities and export finance structures.

[C]

Private Credit & Debt Funds

Direct-lending and infrastructure-credit platforms underwriting satellite operators with PD term structures, survival curves, and Basel III-aligned outputs.

[F]

Infrastructure Investors

Portfolio construction, SPV due diligence, and tranche-level risk attribution for satellite-backed infrastructure funds and project finance vehicles.

[A]

ECAs & Public-Sector Lenders

Sovereign-overlaid PD on foreign satellite buyers, long-tenor survival curves matched to OECD Arrangement maturities, and risk inputs for EIB, KfW IPEX, and DFI mandates.

Institutional Use Cases
U1Pre-deal underwritingOperator risk profile in minutes, ready for credit memos and IC papers, compressing 1-6 month lender decision cycles.
U2Collateral and off-take valuationAsset-level scoring for satellites, ground stations, spectrum rights, and orbital slots, providing the quantitative substitute for collateral while the Space Assets Protocol remains dormant.
U3Regulatory exposure quantificationITU coordination, FCC licensing, and national space-law exposure scored per asset, capturing FCC 5-year deorbit, Italy mandatory liability, and EU Space Act lifecycle rules.
U4Portfolio monitoring and relative valueContinuous orbital, operational, and financial signals surface issuer-specific dispersion against broad-brush market pricing.
U5Stress and scenario analysisShock debris, regulatory, sovereign, or constellation-cascade inputs and re-score; addresses long-tail uncertainty and catastrophic debris-cascade scenarios.
U6Capital, reserve, and bond pricingAudit-ready inputs for Basel III RWA, IFRS 9 ECL, and Solvency II SCR, plus DRS and EPS outputs for tradeable performance bonds and deorbit guarantees.
U7Compliance and model riskVersioned methodology and model-risk evidence for SR 26-2, PRA SS1/23, EBA GL/2021/02, and ECB TRIM use.
“Space assets are structurally compatible with debt financing. They remain unbankable because no standardized credit risk framework exists. SarynSpace closes that gap.”
SarynSpace  ·  Platform Thesis